Serene-Decision
Polymarket trader · Sports · since January 2026
Serene-Decision has lost $212K on Polymarket since January 2026.
It is trading now — about 1,112 fills a day, mostly with limit orders, with 928 markets traded so far.
99% of its fills rest on the book, 1,112 times a day. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead.
Serene-Decision's PnL by month
| Month | PnL in month | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | +$66K | −$929 |
| Sep 2026 | +$78K | −$67K |
| Aug 2026 | −$201K | −$144K |
| Jul 2026 | −$20K | +$56K |
| Jun 2026 | +$64K | +$76K |
| May 2026 | +$54K | +$13K |
| Apr 2026 | +$56K | −$41K |
| Mar 2026 | −$156K | −$97K |
| Feb 2026 | +$58K | +$59K |
| Jan 2026 | $0 | +$443 |
Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.
Should you copy Serene-Decision?
Not copyable: market maker.
- Still tradingLast fill Oct 29, 2026
- Not a market maker99% of fills rest on the book
- Human speed1,112 fills a day
- Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 8% of its markets
- Not one lucky marketNo profit to concentrate
- Enough markets928 markets traded
- Winning lately−$56K over 90 days
- Winning overall−$212K all-time
Market maker. 99% of its fills rest on the book, 1,112 times a day. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead.
Speed trader. 1,112 fills a day — faster than a copier can follow at the same prices.
Not winning lately. −$56K over the last 90 days. Whatever worked before isn't working now.
Losing overall. −$212K all-time: a good stretch on a losing record.
Deep drawdowns. At its worst it was $436K below its peak — more than its peak profit.
Copy check: what a follower would have made
We only replay wallets that pass the structural checks above — this one fails on “market maker”, so a copy would be off before the first fill. See the wallets that pass.
How Serene-Decision trades
- Fills a day
- 1,112
- Resting (maker) fills
- 99%
- Median buy price
- 88¢
- Median fill
- $12
- Fills that sell
- 93%
- Open positions
- 68
- Best market's share
- —
- Worst drawdown
- $436K
- Weeks in profit
- 81%
Fill statistics cover the last 90 days (its latest 1,000 fills); maker share, its latest 500 fills.
Where the profit comes from
- Sports64% of gains+$87K
- Crypto26% of gains+$36K
- Economics6% of gains+$8.4K
- Culture4% of gains+$5.8K
- Tech<1% of gains+$15
- Finance44% of losses−$155K
- Politics56% of losses−$195K
Biggest wins
Biggest losses
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No−$133K
- Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?No−$107K
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No−$84K
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No−$74K
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes−$63K
Largest open positions
| Market | Bought at | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No | 92¢ | 96¢ | $679K | +$27K |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $206K | +$5.6K |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | 83¢ | 97¢ | $203K | +$28K |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No | 93¢ | 98¢ | $203K | +$11K |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $201K | +$2.2K |
Latest fills
- BuyWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?No$305 at 98¢ · Oct 29, 2026
- BuyWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?No$20 at 98¢ · Oct 29, 2026
- BuyXi Jinping out before 2027?No$8 at 97¢ · Oct 29, 2026
- BuyXi Jinping out before 2027?No$27 at 97¢ · Oct 29, 2026
- BuyXi Jinping out before 2027?No$9 at 97¢ · Oct 29, 2026
- BuyXi Jinping out before 2027?No$46 at 97¢ · Oct 29, 2026
Copy-trading tools
All copy-trading botsSerene-Decision fails our checks, but these tools can follow any wallet — start from one that passes.
Polyfollow
Automated copy-trading for Polymarket. Follow proven top traders and replicate their positions automatically, so your book tracks theirs without manual order entry.
Ratio
Social prediction-market app for iOS and Android built around copying Polymarket traders. Browse markets, follow forecasters from a global leaderboard, mirror their positions with your own sizing, and read the reasoning…
Polycool
Mobile-first Polymarket app for copy trading and market discovery. A Smart Feed shows what winning traders are buying right now, an Insider Feed flags suspicious high-conviction bets, and you can copy up to 4 traders…
Serene-Decision: questions people ask
- How much has Serene-Decision made on Polymarket?
- Serene-Decision has lost $212K on Polymarket since January 2026: −$212K all-time on $47.1M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$54K.
- How has Serene-Decision's profit changed over time?
- Serene-Decision's cumulative PnL went from +$443 on Jan 30, 2026 to −$929 on Oct 29, 2026. It peaked at +$213K on Jul 16, 2026; the deepest drawdown was −$357K, from Jul 16, 2026 to Aug 27, 2026. Best month: Sep 2026 (+$78K); worst: Aug 2026 (−$201K). Up in 6 of 10 months. Figures are from Polymarket's profile chart, before taker fees.
- Is Serene-Decision worth copying?
- Not copyable: market maker. 99% of its fills rest on the book, 1,112 times a day. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead. Past results don't predict future ones.
- What does Serene-Decision trade?
- Mostly sports markets — 64% of its profit. It has traded 928 markets; its median buy is at 88¢ and its median fill is $12.
- How do I copy Serene-Decision's trades?
- Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.
Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Oct 29, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.