ArcLing
Polymarket trader · Crypto · since June 2024
ArcLing has made $5.8K on Polymarket since June 2024, mostly in crypto and sports markets.
It is trading now — about 1.9 fills a day, mostly with limit orders, with 1,773 markets traded so far.
Over the last 29 days it made +0.1% on the money it put in; a copier one to two minutes behind, paying the spread and the taker fee, would have made +0.1%.
ArcLing's PnL by month
| Month | PnL in month | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | +$338 | +$5.8K |
| Sep 2026 | +$1.2K | +$5.5K |
| Aug 2026 | +$230 | +$4.2K |
| Jul 2026 | +$350 | +$4.0K |
| Jun 2026 | $0 | +$3.7K |
| May 2026 | −$1 | +$3.7K |
| Apr 2026 | +$1 | +$3.7K |
| Mar 2026 | +$10 | +$3.7K |
| Feb 2026 | −$244 | +$3.6K |
| Jan 2026 | −$1 | +$3.9K |
| Dec 2025 | +$587 | +$3.9K |
| Nov 2025 | +$922 | +$3.3K |
| Oct 2025 | +$704 | +$2.4K |
| Sep 2025 | +$409 | +$1.7K |
| Aug 2025 | −$3.8K | +$1.3K |
| Jul 2025 | −$89 | +$5.1K |
| Jun 2025 | +$107 | +$5.2K |
| May 2025 | +$52 | +$5.1K |
| Apr 2025 | +$1.4K | +$5.0K |
| Mar 2025 | +$1.6K | +$3.6K |
| Feb 2025 | −$103 | +$2.0K |
| Jan 2025 | +$878 | +$2.1K |
| Dec 2024 | +$348 | +$1.2K |
| Nov 2024 | +$1.0K | +$833 |
| Oct 2024 | +$6 | −$206 |
| Sep 2024 | $0 | −$212 |
| Aug 2024 | +$4 | −$212 |
| Jul 2024 | $0 | −$216 |
| Jun 2024 | −$216 | −$216 |
Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.
Should you copy ArcLing?
Worth copying: a copier one to two minutes behind kept 50% of its 30-day return.
- Still tradingLast fill Oct 29, 2026
- Not a market maker81% of fills rest on the book
- Human speed1.9 fills a day
- Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 0% of its markets
- Not one lucky marketBest market is 17% of all-time profit
- Enough markets1,773 markets traded
- Winning lately+$1.8K over 90 days
- Winning overall+$5.8K all-time
- Survives the copy delayA copier 1–2 min behind: +0.1% over 29 days
Limit orders. 81% of its fills rest on the book. It gets its own price; a copier chasing with market orders pays the spread.
Deep drawdowns. At its worst it gave back $5.7K, 83% of its peak profit.
Buys near-certainties. Median buy at 99¢: many small wins, and one miss costs a lot of them.
Copy check: what a follower would have made
Its last 25 fills over 29 days, replayed twice: at the prices ArcLing got, and at the price a copier would get a little later — the market's midpoint plus half a typical spread, plus the taker fee. Same sizes, same exits; open positions valued at today's price (11% of the money went into markets that have already resolved).
| Who | Return | PnL | Paid extra |
|---|---|---|---|
| ArcLing | +0.1% | +$8 | — |
| Copier, under a minute behind | +0.1% | +$4 | +0.1¢ / share |
| Copier, 1–2 minutes behind | +0.1% | +$4 | +0.1¢ / share |
| Copier, 5–6 minutes behind | +0.1% | +$4 | +0.1¢ / share |
Copier PnL is at ArcLing's size, so compare the returns, not the dollars. Not modelled — all in the copier's favour: its own price impact, partial fills, and fills it would have missed.
How ArcLing trades
- Fills a day
- 1.9
- Resting (maker) fills
- 81%
- Median buy price
- 99¢
- Median fill
- $95
- Fills that sell
- 14%
- Open positions
- 3
- Best market's share
- 17%
- Worst drawdown
- $5.7K
- Weeks in profit
- 86%
Fill statistics cover the last 90 days; maker share, its latest 500 fills.
Where the profit comes from
- Crypto56% of gains+$5.4K
- Sports31% of gains+$3.0K
- Politics13% of gains+$1.2K
- Economics<1% of gains+$5
- Weather<1% of gains+$2
- Tech<1% of losses−$4
- Mentions3% of losses−$93
- Finance5% of losses−$183
- Culture92% of losses−$3.3K
Biggest wins
- Wild vs. DevilsDevils+$999
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?Yes+$926
- Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?No+$766
- Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5?No+$584
- Golden Knights vs. SabresGolden Knights+$551
Largest open positions
| Market | Bought at | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch?No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1.7K | +$6 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $236 | −$1 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $18 | $0 |
Latest fills
- BuyWill Solana reach $140 in October?No$49 at 100¢ · Oct 29, 2026
- SellReya FDV above $1B one day after launch?No$1 at 99¢ · Oct 29, 2026
- BuyCounter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs AND Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs$28 at 72¢ · Oct 28, 2026
- BuyWill Solana reach $180 in October?No$10 at 100¢ · Oct 28, 2026
- BuyWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?No$59 at 100¢ · Oct 27, 2026
- BuyCounter-Strike: B8 vs K27 (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A AND Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs Rooster (BO3) - DFRAG Invitational Group B AND Counter-Strike: Staqued vs Abyssal (BO3) - DFRAG Invitational Group B$18 at 63¢ · Oct 27, 2026
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ArcLing: questions people ask
- How much has ArcLing made on Polymarket?
- ArcLing has made $5.8K on Polymarket since June 2024, mostly in crypto and sports markets: +$5.8K all-time on $12.9M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$54K.
- How has ArcLing's profit changed over time?
- ArcLing's cumulative PnL went from $0 on Jun 14, 2024 to +$5.8K on Oct 30, 2026. It peaked at +$6.9K on May 16, 2025; the deepest drawdown was −$5.6K, from May 16, 2025 to Aug 29, 2025. Best month: Mar 2025 (+$1.6K); worst: Aug 2025 (−$3.8K). Up in 19 of 29 months. Figures are from Polymarket's profile chart, before taker fees.
- Is ArcLing worth copying?
- Worth copying: a copier one to two minutes behind kept 50% of its 30-day return. We replayed its last 29 days of fills at the price a copier would get one to two minutes later, with the spread and the taker fee: +0.1% on money spent, against the wallet's own +0.1%. Past results don't predict future ones.
- What does ArcLing trade?
- Mostly crypto markets — 56% of its profit. It has traded 1,773 markets; its median buy is at 99¢ and its median fill is $95.
- How do I copy ArcLing's trades?
- Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0x50a832e2f544cd4a6842fac5fcc5a4425684143f. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.
Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Oct 30, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.