How much has FairValueMachine made on Polymarket?

FairValueMachine has made $44K on Polymarket since July 2026, almost all of it in crypto markets: +$44K all-time on $7.1M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$59K.

What does FairValueMachine trade?

Mostly crypto markets — 100% of its profit. It has traded 22,541 markets; its median buy is at 46¢ and its median fill is $7.

How do I copy FairValueMachine's trades?

Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0xd84403efd50b49a1d8a7181627e00307e6ea5908. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.

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Speed traderCrypto

FairValueMachine

Polymarket trader · Crypto · since July 2026

FairValueMachine has made $44K on Polymarket since July 2026, almost all of it in crypto markets.

It is trading now — about 4,522 fills a day, mostly taking the best available price, with 22,541 markets traded so far.

100% of its fills are in 5- and 15-minute crypto windows, where the edge lasts seconds — gone by the time a copy lands.

Profile on Polymarket Copy check

Profit & loss, all time+$44K

$123K−$308

Jul 18, 2026Oct 25, 2026

Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.

All-time PnL+$44K

30-day PnL+$59K

Volume$7.1M

Markets traded22,541

Should you copy FairValueMachine?

Not copyable: speed trader.

Still tradingLast fill Oct 25, 2026
Not a market maker48% of fills rest on the book
Human speed4,522 fills a day, 100% in 5–15-minute crypto
Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 89% of its markets
Not one lucky marketBest market is 3% of all-time profit
Enough markets22,541 markets traded
Winning lately+$123K over 90 days
Winning overall+$44K all-time

Trades both sides. It buys both outcomes in 89% of its markets — arbitrage or hedging that only works at its own prices and timing.

Speed trader. 100% of its fills are in 5- and 15-minute crypto windows, where the edge lasts seconds — gone by the time a copy lands.

Copy check: what a follower would have made

We only replay wallets that pass the structural checks above — this one fails on “speed trader”, so a copy would be off before the first fill. See the wallets that pass.

How FairValueMachine trades

Fills a day: 4,522
Resting (maker) fills: 48%
Median buy price: 46¢
Median fill: $7
Fills that sell: 0%
Open positions: 3
Best market's share: 3%
Worst drawdown: $1.3K
Weeks in profit: 100%

Fill statistics cover the last 90 days (its latest 1,000 fills); maker share, its latest 500 fills.

Where the profit comes from

Crypto+$44K

Biggest wins

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETUp+$1.2K
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETUp+$1.1K
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ETUp+$1.0K
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ETDown+$1.0K
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ETDown+$998

Biggest losses

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ETUp−$1.2K
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETDown−$1.1K
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown−$1.0K
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ETUp−$982
Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ETDown−$964

Largest open positions

Market	Bought at	Now	Value	PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes	20¢	22¢	$538	+$38
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETUp	52¢	73¢	$109	+$30
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETDown	46¢	28¢	$44	−$30

Latest fills

BuyBitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETDown$8 at 26¢ · Oct 25, 2026
BuyBitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETUp$21 at 67¢ · Oct 25, 2026
BuyBitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETUp$16 at 51¢ · Oct 25, 2026
BuyBitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETDown$5 at 52¢ · Oct 25, 2026
BuyBitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETDown$14 at 52¢ · Oct 25, 2026
BuyBitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETDown$2 at 43¢ · Oct 25, 2026

Copy-trading tools

All copy-trading bots

FairValueMachine fails our checks, but these tools can follow any wallet — start from one that passes.

CloddsBot

Crypto Markets

Open-source AI trading agent that runs on your own machine and takes orders in natural language over Telegram, Discord, WebChat and eighteen other channels. Powered by Claude, it covers ten prediction markets — Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets, Drift, Manifold, Metaculus, PredictIt, Opinion.xyz and Predict.fun — plus perpetual-futures exchanges and Solana and EVM DeFi. The Polymarket layer is real code rather than a wrapper: an EIP-712 order signer with unit tests, a CLOB client exposing 60-plus methods, real-time data and user WebSocket feeds, a large-trade tracker, and round-based discovery of the 5-minute BTC and the 15-minute, hourly, 4-hour and daily crypto windows with four automated strategies, alongside cross-venue arbitrage detection, copy trading and DCA bots. MIT-licensed at github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot: 2,700 stars, 460-plus commits from one primary author, v1.9.1 released Sep 12, 2026, installed with one npm command on Node 22.

Botfree · MIT

Rainmaker

Arbitrage

AI-agent terminal that unifies arbitrage, copy-trading and analytics across Polymarket, Kalshi and Novig. Its Cloud9 agents snipe arbitrage between venues, score and replicate winning traders, and mine analytics — with a focus on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NCAA).

Platformsee site

Whalidate

Verified Partner

Copy Trading5.0 (3)

Copy trading for Polymarket that starts with the question a profit leaderboard skips: how did the wallet make its money? Its WhaleFinder tool replays each wallet's public history and scores the return on the money put in, the number of settled trades, the worst drawdown and how much of the profit came from a single bet. By default a wallet needs a 15% return, 30 settled trades, a drawdown of 25% or less and no more than half its profit from one trade; on Sep 30, 2026, 166 of the 1,346 wallets scored in full passed. You pick the wallets and set the rules — entry price band, slippage cap, market categories, caps per market and per event, daily, weekly and drawdown loss limits — and Whalidate copies only the new buys that pass, with a fill-or-kill order at the price the book offers. Every strategy runs on paper for free with no time limit. Live copying needs a paid plan from $49 a month, takes no fee per trade, and runs from a trading wallet whose keys Whalidate holds.

Botfree on paper · live from $49/mo

FairValueMachine: questions people ask

How much has FairValueMachine made on Polymarket?: FairValueMachine has made $44K on Polymarket since July 2026, almost all of it in crypto markets: +$44K all-time on $7.1M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$59K.
Is FairValueMachine worth copying?: Not copyable: speed trader. 100% of its fills are in 5- and 15-minute crypto windows, where the edge lasts seconds — gone by the time a copy lands. Past results don't predict future ones.
What does FairValueMachine trade?: Mostly crypto markets — 100% of its profit. It has traded 22,541 markets; its median buy is at 46¢ and its median fill is $7.
How do I copy FairValueMachine's trades?: Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0xd84403efd50b49a1d8a7181627e00307e6ea5908. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.

Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Oct 25, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.