Octagon
0 out of 5 starsBe the first to reviewAI research for Kalshi and Polymarket, with an open-source command-line client that trades on Kalshi. For every active contract Octagon publishes a research report that sets its model's probability against the live price — a short answer, the drivers behind recent moves, cited sources, a price chart and past resolutions — and the reports are free to read on the site. Subscribers get the same engine through an API, an MCP server and the Kalshi Trading Bot CLI: an MIT-licensed terminal app that runs deep research on a market, computes the gap between model and book, sizes it at half-Kelly through a five-gate risk check and places the order from your own Kalshi account. Octagon AI Inc. was founded in 2023 by Ken So and says it is backed by AI Fund, Andrew Ng's venture firm.
Overview
AI research for Kalshi and Polymarket, with an open-source command-line client that trades on Kalshi. For every active contract Octagon publishes a research report that sets its model's probability against the live price — a short answer, the drivers behind recent moves, cited sources, a price chart and past resolutions — and the reports are free to read on the site. Subscribers get the same engine through an API, an MCP server and the Kalshi Trading Bot CLI: an MIT-licensed terminal app that runs deep research on a market, computes the gap between model and book, sizes it at half-Kelly through a five-gate risk check and places the order from your own Kalshi account. Octagon AI Inc. was founded in 2023 by Ken So and says it is backed by AI Fund, Andrew Ng's venture firm.
How it works
- This is research with an execution arm, not a strategy with a record. The CLI trades when Octagon's probability and the live book disagree by enough to clear its gates, and nothing on the site or in the repo publishes the results of trading that way. Reports can also agree with the market: the one we opened, on weekly US gas prices, concluded that the model and the price expected the same bracket and there was nothing to trade.
- Reports are generated, not edited. Each carries the line “Generated by Octagon's research engine from live market data and the cited sources. Not individually reviewed unless a reviewer is named”, and the gas-price report we read was last updated Aug 18 for a contract that expired Aug 24 — check the update date before acting on one.
- The CLI is real code: 278 commits from three contributors, 1.6 MB of TypeScript, MIT-licensed, last pushed Sep 30, 2026. It signs Kalshi requests with RSA-PSS from your own key file and sends market questions to api.octagonai.co for the research. It also reports anonymous usage events to Statsig by default — command names, the side of a trade, the model in use, never keys, tickers or sizes — and TELEMETRY_ENABLED=false in the .env switches that off.
- We read the free reports, the pricing page and the CLI's client, risk and telemetry code. We did not run the CLI against a Kalshi account or buy a plan, so the research behind the paywall and live order handling are untested by us.
Supported markets
- Kalshi — research reports, plus trading through the CLI
- Polymarket — research reports
Reading the research reports on the site is free, no account needed. API, MCP and CLI research need a plan: Plus is $20 a month, or $17 billed annually, with 200 credits; Pro is $49, or $41 billed annually, with 600 credits and the historical reports; both start with a 15-day trial and no card. A prediction-market research call costs 3 credits, so Plus covers about 66 market analyses a month, and extra credits are $50 per 500. The CLI itself is free under MIT but also needs your own LLM key and Kalshi API key, and Kalshi's fees apply on every fill.
Get Octagon- A free research report for every active contract: model probability against the live price, a short answer, price drivers, cited sources and past resolutions
- Kalshi Trading Bot CLI — open source (MIT), runs on Bun: deep research per market, edge as model minus book, half-Kelly sizing, a five-gate risk check before any order
- Orders go out from your own Kalshi account, with the API key and RSA key kept in a local file; a Kalshi demo mode trades without real money
- Research API, MCP server and agent SDK on the same credits
- Bring your own model: OpenAI by default, or Anthropic, Google, xAI, OpenRouter or a local Ollama
- Author
- Octagon AI Inc.
- Category
- Platforms & Tools
- Website
- www.octagonai.co
- Added
- Oct 1, 2026
Link to this page from your site and the listing gets the Verified Partner mark and a followed link back to you.
Get the badgeOctagon reviews
No one has reviewed Octagon here yet. If you have run it, your write-up is the one the next reader will see.
Be the first to review Octagon. Tell the next reader what it traded for you, what it cost and whether you would run it again.
Reviews are written by readers, not by us or by the bot's author. Each one is read by a human before it is published, and we never accept payment for a review or for a rating.
Octagon alternatives
Polypick
AI edge-finder for prediction markets. Drop in any market — or a screenshot of one — and Polypick reads the latest news and data to call the side with an edge in under 10 seconds, with a plain-English rationale and a risk score. Adds curated daily picks, copy signals from winning wallets and real-time alerts when odds shift. Analysis only — non-custodial, it never touches your funds.
Turbine
Build, backtest and deploy automated prediction-market strategies in plain English — no code. Describe a strategy, Turbine writes the rules, backtests them on 30 days of market data with fees and bid/ask modeled, then runs it 24/7 in a cloud sandbox. Covers Kalshi and Polymarket.
Prediction Pilot
AI assistant for prediction-market research and monitoring. Ask questions in plain English, scan Kalshi's order books live, backtest ideas on 90 days of settled data, monitor open positions with real-time P&L, and get scheduled alerts — plus cross-platform arbitrage detection between Kalshi and Polymarket.