ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Polymarket trader · Economics · since January 2025
ArmageddonRewardsBilly has made $306K on Polymarket since January 2025, most of it in economics markets.
It is trading now — about 452 fills a day, mostly with limit orders, with 50,444 markets traded so far.
98% of its fills rest on the book, across 79.1 new markets a day. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead.
Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.
Should you copy ArmageddonRewardsBilly?
Not copyable: market maker.
- Still tradingLast fill Oct 25, 2026
- Not a market maker98% of fills rest on the book
- Human speed452 fills a day
- Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 8% of its markets
- Not one lucky marketBest market is 235% of all-time profit
- Enough markets50,444 markets traded
- Winning lately+$636K over 90 days
- Winning overall+$306K all-time
Market maker. 98% of its fills rest on the book, across 79.1 new markets a day. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead.
Speed trader. 452 fills a day — faster than a copier can follow at the same prices.
One big win. 235% of its all-time profit came from a single market — “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?”. That is one call that paid, not a record to follow.
Down this month. −$38K over the last 30 days.
Deep drawdowns. At its worst it was $900K below its peak — more than its peak profit.
Streaky. Up in only 31% of its recent weeks.
Copy check: what a follower would have made
We only replay wallets that pass the structural checks above — this one fails on “market maker”, so a copy would be off before the first fill. See the wallets that pass.
How ArmageddonRewardsBilly trades
- Fills a day
- 452
- Resting (maker) fills
- 98%
- Median buy price
- 82¢
- Median fill
- $45
- Fills that sell
- 47%
- Open positions
- 354
- Best market's share
- 235%
- Worst drawdown
- $900K
- Weeks in profit
- 31%
Fill statistics cover the last 90 days (its latest 1,000 fills); maker share, its latest 500 fills.
Where the profit comes from
- Economics+$950K
- Crypto+$119K
- Weather−$4.7K
- Mentions−$31K
- Culture−$41K
- Tech−$51K
- Politics−$73K
- Sports−$110K
- Finance−$454K
Biggest wins
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes+$719K
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes+$232K
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes+$83K
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?Yes+$80K
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Yes+$65K
Biggest losses
- No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Yes−$117K
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes−$114K
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes−$95K
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes−$53K
- Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?Yes−$47K
Largest open positions
| Market | Bought at | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | 50¢ | 80¢ | $119K | +$44K |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $86K | +$417 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No | 82¢ | 86¢ | $40K | +$1.6K |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | 50¢ | 21¢ | $31K | −$44K |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No | 83¢ | 92¢ | $25K | +$2.3K |
Latest fills
- SellWill Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 30, 2026?No$7 at 93¢ · Oct 25, 2026
- BuyWill Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 30, 2026?No$25 at 87¢ · Oct 25, 2026
- SellWill Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 30, 2026?No$2 at 93¢ · Oct 25, 2026
- SellTurek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?No$31 at 61¢ · Oct 25, 2026
- SellTexas Senate favorite on November 2?Paxton$4 at 4¢ · Oct 25, 2026
- SellNext Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?No$16 at 92¢ · Oct 25, 2026
Copy-trading tools
All copy-trading botsArmageddonRewardsBilly fails our checks, but these tools can follow any wallet — start from one that passes.
CloddsBot
Open-source AI trading agent that runs on your own machine and takes orders in natural language over Telegram, Discord, WebChat and eighteen other channels. Powered by Claude, it covers ten prediction markets — Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets, Drift, Manifold, Metaculus, PredictIt, Opinion.xyz and Predict.fun — plus perpetual-futures exchanges and Solana and EVM DeFi. The Polymarket layer is real code rather than a wrapper: an EIP-712 order signer with unit tests, a CLOB client exposing 60-plus methods, real-time data and user WebSocket feeds, a large-trade tracker, and round-based discovery of the 5-minute BTC and the 15-minute, hourly, 4-hour and daily crypto windows with four automated strategies, alongside cross-venue arbitrage detection, copy trading and DCA bots. MIT-licensed at github.com/alsk1992/CloddsBot: 2,700 stars, 460-plus commits from one primary author, v1.9.1 released Sep 12, 2026, installed with one npm command on Node 22.
Rainmaker
AI-agent terminal that unifies arbitrage, copy-trading and analytics across Polymarket, Kalshi and Novig. Its Cloud9 agents snipe arbitrage between venues, score and replicate winning traders, and mine analytics — with a focus on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NCAA).
Whalidate
Verified PartnerCopy trading for Polymarket that starts with the question a profit leaderboard skips: how did the wallet make its money? Its WhaleFinder tool replays each wallet's public history and scores the return on the money put in, the number of settled trades, the worst drawdown and how much of the profit came from a single bet. By default a wallet needs a 15% return, 30 settled trades, a drawdown of 25% or less and no more than half its profit from one trade; on Sep 30, 2026, 166 of the 1,346 wallets scored in full passed. You pick the wallets and set the rules — entry price band, slippage cap, market categories, caps per market and per event, daily, weekly and drawdown loss limits — and Whalidate copies only the new buys that pass, with a fill-or-kill order at the price the book offers. Every strategy runs on paper for free with no time limit. Live copying needs a paid plan from $49 a month, takes no fee per trade, and runs from a trading wallet whose keys Whalidate holds.
ArmageddonRewardsBilly: questions people ask
- How much has ArmageddonRewardsBilly made on Polymarket?
- ArmageddonRewardsBilly has made $306K on Polymarket since January 2025, most of it in economics markets: +$306K all-time on $523.2M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: −$38K.
- Is ArmageddonRewardsBilly worth copying?
- Not copyable: market maker. 98% of its fills rest on the book, across 79.1 new markets a day. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead. Past results don't predict future ones.
- What does ArmageddonRewardsBilly trade?
- Mostly economics markets — 89% of its profit. It has traded 50,444 markets; its median buy is at 82¢ and its median fill is $45.
- How do I copy ArmageddonRewardsBilly's trades?
- Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.
Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Oct 25, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.