OVERROUND

Overview

Analytics platform that ranks public Polymarket wallets by skill-adjusted accuracy instead of profit. Every resolved position is graded against the price the wallet actually paid — a 30¢ winner counts as a win the market already priced at 30% — and scores are computed over independent resolved events, so neither a hot streak nor a hundred legs of the same question can pass as a track record. 484,966 wallet-category records across 61 boards, a free checker that returns a verdict with a 95% interval on whether any wallet's record is distinguishable from luck, and alerts on email and Telegram within minutes when a tracked forecaster changes position. Every alert it has ever sent is graded in public with losses left on the page: 409–245 on 654 resolved markets when we listed it.

How it works

• Scores accuracy against the price paid rather than money made, then weights each record by how much independent evidence it actually contains — the public board's floor is 20 resolved events.
• Counts only positions held on one side through resolution; correlated legs inside one event family count once, and the 5-minute Up/Down series is excluded by policy.
• Alerts fire when an already-graded wallet acts with unusual conviction by its own history, not when a large wallet moves.
• Alert rows freeze at detection and settle on the market's own resolution, with a public correction log that has already restated the record downward (66% → 62%) against itself.
• Young and self-graded: the domain dates to Jun 19, 2026, the de-luck filters behind the ranking are unpublished, and the ledger is the operator's own — public arithmetic, but not third-party audited.

Supported markets

• All 61 Polymarket category boards
• CTF Exchange & NegRisk fills
• Resolved-event records