SpectralEdge

About SpectralEdge

Signal service for Kalshi's Bitcoin 15-minute markets, from Cotes AI, Inc. Every 5 seconds a model re-reads each open market and calls YES or NO only when its calibrated confidence clears a fixed threshold and the price still leaves a minimum edge; about half of all markets get no signal. Each signal shows its side, confidence, entry price and edge, and is graded at settlement. You place trades yourself on Kalshi, and the service never connects to your account. The same feed is available as a JSON and streaming API. It starts with a free trial; the subscription price is not published.

How SpectralEdge works

• The headline is accuracy, and the company itself says accuracy alone proves nothing: its own guides explain that a 90¢ contract needs to win more than 90% of the time, and its notes for AI assistants ask that any win rate be quoted with the average entry price. It does not publish that average. Its public replay feed showed 1,220 wins and 199 losses over the trailing 30 days on Nov 5, 2026, or 86.0%, across about half of the markets in that period, in line with the 85.8% on the home page.
• The last ten markets in that feed give a first look at price. Seven drew a signal, all seven won, and they entered at 81¢ to 92.6¢, averaging about 88¢. All ten settlements matched Kalshi's public API. Seven signals are far too few to judge, but an 86% win rate at an 88¢ average entry would lose money even before Kalshi's fee, so the number to check is the average entry across the full history. Trial users can compute it from the API's entry price and outcome fields. The signal also has to be tradable: you act by hand, in a market that can reprice within a minute.
• The sample sizes vary from page to page: 15,000+ markets of out-of-sample validation, a backtest of 8,085 first signals at 88.5%, “Trained & tested on 7,654 markets” on the parent site, and more than 30,000 settled markets in a founder interview. They may describe different stages, but the site does not reconcile them. The backtest is simulated and carries the CFTC hypothetical-performance notice. “Physics-trained AI” here means decomposing Bitcoin's price into component waves, which the company says is covered by five provisional patent applications; we did not verify that.
• The people behind it are named: Cotes AI, Inc. is a Delaware corporation run by co-founders Steve Lacy and Michael Gauthier, and it relies on the publisher exemption rather than registering as an adviser. It says it never holds funds or connects to your Kalshi account. The domain cotes.ai dates from Mar 8, 2026. Launchpoly lists it as working with Polymarket, but the site and API cover Kalshi only. We read the home page, docs, Learn articles, founder interview and terms, and checked the public replay feed; we did not start a trial, so the live app and the API behind the key are untested by us.

Markets SpectralEdge covers

• Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute markets (series KXBTC15M)