Uruguabot

Overview

Self-hosted Python bot for Polymarket's 5-minute BTC and ETH up/down markets, sold with its complete live trading record — losses included. A free GitHub repo publishes every fill from two generations of testing plus a 1,934-window study in which every automated signal scored roughly coin-flip against the human's 59%; the published numbers reproduce exactly from the raw CSVs, though the logs omit market ids, so the record is self-attested rather than on-chain verifiable. Both generations together lost about $270 — mostly execution and a since-fixed ghost-fill bug — while the configuration that ships as default closed its live run at +7.3% ROI on a 40% win rate over a small 25-trade sample: momentum entries, stop re-anchored to execution price minus 10¢, winners held to binary resolution. Dry-run is the default, with fills simulated from slippage measured on real trades; live mode takes two explicit flags and a dedicated wallet.

How it works

• Enters on multi-timeframe momentum consensus (30s/1m/5m) with entry gates — but the published audit shows the edge came from exit asymmetry, not prediction accuracy.
• Cuts losers at execution price minus 10¢ and holds winners to binary resolution, so average wins run about 3× average losses at a 40% win rate.
• Simulates first by default using friction measured from its own real fills, then requires deliberate opt-in for live trading.
• Publishes the full record, including the losing configurations, so buyers can recompute every claim from the raw CSVs before paying.

Supported markets

• BTC up/down · 5m
• ETH up/down · 5m
• BTC/ETH up/down · 15m (tested in gen 1)