Convexly vs OrcaLayer
Convexly and OrcaLayer are both filed under Platforms & Tools and Copy Trading and 1 more. Both are trading platforms, and both are free with paid plans. Below: the facts side by side, where the two actually differ, and when each one is the better pick.
Polymarket wallet checker that asks whether a record shows skill or luck.
Compared with OrcaLayer
Polymarket analytics site and data API built on its own index of trades read from the Polygon chain.
Compared with ConvexlyAt a glance
| Fact | Convexly | OrcaLayer |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Trading platform | Trading platform |
| Category | Platforms & Tools | Platforms & Tools |
| Also listed in | Copy Trading, Sentiment / News, Hedging | Copy Trading, Sports Trading, Politics & Elections, Sentiment / News, Weather Markets |
| Pricing | Free tier, paid plans | Free tier, paid plans |
| Price | free · from $9/mo | free · Pro $9.99/mo |
| Risk rating | Medium risk | Medium risk |
| Markets | All Polymarket markets; some research also covers Manifold | All Polymarket markets |
| Source | Source not published | Source not published |
| Runs in Telegram | No | No |
| Listed since | Nov 11, 2026 | Nov 11, 2026 |
Highlighted rows differ
Key differences
- Both are free with paid plans, but on different terms: Convexly is free · from $9/mo, OrcaLayer is free · Pro $9.99/mo.
- They cover different markets: Convexly lists All Polymarket markets; some research also covers Manifold, OrcaLayer lists All Polymarket markets.
- Only Convexly is filed under Hedging, and only OrcaLayer is filed under Sports Trading and Politics & Elections and 1 more.
Choose Convexly if…
- you trade All Polymarket markets; some research also covers Manifold
- your focus is Hedging
Choose OrcaLayer if…
- you trade All Polymarket markets
- your focus is Sports Trading and Politics & Elections and 1 more
What Convexly does
Polymarket wallet checker that asks whether a record shows skill or luck. Paste an address and it shows the wallet's reported P&L, resolved positions and how much of its history the read actually covers, then how much of the profit came from the single biggest event, how its entry prices compared with outcomes, and an “Edge Score” ranking it against a fixed cohort of 8,656 wallets. The first check needs no account. Plans for watching wallets over time cost $9, $49 or $499 a month, and a one-off read of a wallet's settled positions reconciled against the Polygon chain costs $19. It does not trade or suggest whom to copy.
Features- Wallet check: reported P&L, resolved positions, latest trade captured and the coverage of the read
- Concentration check showing what the result would be without the single biggest event
- Entry price against settled outcome, with and without that event, and a Brier score
- Edge Score: a historical percentile against 8,656 leaderboard wallets from April 2026
- One-time $19 read of a wallet's settled positions rebuilt from Polygon, with the block it stops at
- The figures we checked are Polymarket's own. On Nov 11, 2026 the site's sample wallet, Trevio, showed $32,069.66 of reported P&L across 36 resolved positions, and Polymarket's all-time profit for that address was $32,069.66 to the cent. What Convexly adds is the context the profile does not give: one event contributed $31,964.42 of that total, and without it the wallet was up $105.24. For anyone choosing a wallet to follow, that one line is the useful part.
- It is unusually careful about what it cannot show. The free check is labelled as available history only and “not lifetime P&L”, the home page reports that 31 of the 42 wallets on its public board had their full record rebuilt from Polygon on the day we looked, and the about page carries a correction from Aug 10, 2026 withdrawing an earlier claim that every result could be reproduced by a reader: the cohort behind the Edge Score has not been published. The score is a percentile against that April 2026 cohort, not a probability that a trader is skilled, and the site says so.
- The prices climb steeply. Free covers a check and one watched wallet, and $9 a month covers three; the jump to $499 a month for Trader buys alerts polled every five minutes on 25 wallets, which is a slow feed next to the tools in this catalog that push fills within a second. The activity emails on the lower plans arrive at most once per wallet every 20 hours and say themselves that they can miss trades.
What OrcaLayer does
Polymarket analytics site and data API built on its own index of trades read from the Polygon chain. It ranks wallets by profit with reward farmers, high-frequency bots and Polymarket's router contracts filtered out, marks a wallet “Smart Money” when it has a 55%+ win rate over 10+ resolved markets and positive P&L, and shows each market's smart-money split, wallet track records and a live feed of large trades. Wallet pages, the leaderboard and market pages are free to browse without an account. Pro at $9.99 a month adds Telegram and Discord whale alerts and a watchlist; Premium at $19.99 adds the API, and Business at $99 adds webhooks and a commercial licence. You trade on Polymarket yourself.
Features- Own index of Polymarket fills from Polygon, with splits, merges and redemptions tracked and NegRisk markets corrected
- Leaderboard by profit, win rate or profit factor for 24 hours, 7 days, 30 days or all time, by category
- Filters that drop farmers (average buy above 95¢), bots (500,000+ trades under $20 on average) and Polymarket's router contracts
- “Smart Money” and stricter “Proven” marks, with the rules published on a methodology page
- Market pages showing which side the tracked wallets hold
- The base numbers hold up. On Nov 11, 2026 the top three of OrcaLayer's all-time leaderboard, Theo4 at +$22.05 million, swisstony at +$18.48 million and Fredi9999 at +$16.62 million, matched Polymarket's own all-time profit leaderboard to the ten thousand dollars. Below that the two lists part: Polymarket's fourth-placed account, at +$13.3 million, is not in OrcaLayer's default view, which hides farmers and bots, and OrcaLayer's fourth, DEEDDIT, shows +$7.47 million. That is the point of the product, but the filters are switched on by default, so the board is a selection and not the whole field.
- The filters themselves are simple and published, which makes them easy to judge. A farmer is any wallet whose average buy price is above 95¢; a bot is a wallet with more than 500,000 trades averaging under $20; “Smart Money” is a 55% market win rate over ten resolved markets with positive lifetime P&L. “Proven” is stricter, comparing each entry price with how the market resolved, with a significance threshold and at least 20 events. The methodology page has a section on what the site does not claim, and the footer says past results do not predict future ones.
- The marketing around the data is looser than the data. The home page greets visitors with “Your win rate is just 7.9%” against whales, without saying what the figure measures. Counts drift from page to page: 203K smart whales on the home page against 180K+ on the pricing page, and 5.1M+ markets on the home page against 2M+ on pricing and 1.4M+ in the FAQ. The domain was registered on Mar 23, 2026.
More head-to-heads
Every fact on this page is taken from the two listings as their authors publish them; POLBOTS verifies neither performance nor claims and has no stake in either tool. Nothing here is financial advice.