Convexly vs TrueOdds
Convexly and TrueOdds are both filed under Platforms & Tools and Copy Trading and 1 more. Both are trading platforms; Convexly is free with paid plans, TrueOdds is paid. Below: the facts side by side, where the two actually differ, and when each one is the better pick.
Polymarket wallet checker that asks whether a record shows skill or luck.
Compared with TrueOdds
Polymarket signal and research site sold as one $29-a-month subscription.
Compared with ConvexlyAt a glance
| Fact | Convexly | TrueOdds |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Trading platform | Trading platform |
| Category | Platforms & Tools | Platforms & Tools |
| Also listed in | Copy Trading, Sentiment / News, Hedging | Copy Trading, Telegram, Politics & Elections, Crypto Markets, Sentiment / News, Sniping, Weather Markets |
| Pricing | Free tier, paid plans | Paid |
| Price | free · from $9/mo | per month |
| Risk rating | Medium risk | Medium risk |
| Markets | All Polymarket markets; some research also covers Manifold | All Polymarket markets |
| Source | Source not published | Source not published |
| Runs in Telegram | No | Yes |
| Listed since | Nov 11, 2026 | Nov 13, 2026 |
Highlighted rows differ
Key differences
- Convexly is free with paid plans (free · from $9/mo); TrueOdds is paid (per month).
- They cover different markets: Convexly lists All Polymarket markets; some research also covers Manifold, TrueOdds lists All Polymarket markets.
- TrueOdds runs inside Telegram; Convexly does not.
- Only Convexly is filed under Hedging, and only TrueOdds is filed under Telegram and Politics & Elections and 3 more.
Choose Convexly if…
- you want to start without paying
- you trade All Polymarket markets; some research also covers Manifold
- your focus is Hedging
Choose TrueOdds if…
- you want it inside Telegram
- you trade All Polymarket markets
- your focus is Telegram and Politics & Elections and 3 more
What Convexly does
Polymarket wallet checker that asks whether a record shows skill or luck. Paste an address and it shows the wallet's reported P&L, resolved positions and how much of its history the read actually covers, then how much of the profit came from the single biggest event, how its entry prices compared with outcomes, and an “Edge Score” ranking it against a fixed cohort of 8,656 wallets. The first check needs no account. Plans for watching wallets over time cost $9, $49 or $499 a month, and a one-off read of a wallet's settled positions reconciled against the Polygon chain costs $19. It does not trade or suggest whom to copy.
Features- Wallet check: reported P&L, resolved positions, latest trade captured and the coverage of the read
- Concentration check showing what the result would be without the single biggest event
- Entry price against settled outcome, with and without that event, and a Brier score
- Edge Score: a historical percentile against 8,656 leaderboard wallets from April 2026
- One-time $19 read of a wallet's settled positions rebuilt from Polygon, with the block it stops at
- The figures we checked are Polymarket's own. On Nov 11, 2026 the site's sample wallet, Trevio, showed $32,069.66 of reported P&L across 36 resolved positions, and Polymarket's all-time profit for that address was $32,069.66 to the cent. What Convexly adds is the context the profile does not give: one event contributed $31,964.42 of that total, and without it the wallet was up $105.24. For anyone choosing a wallet to follow, that one line is the useful part.
- It is unusually careful about what it cannot show. The free check is labelled as available history only and “not lifetime P&L”, the home page reports that 31 of the 42 wallets on its public board had their full record rebuilt from Polygon on the day we looked, and the about page carries a correction from Aug 10, 2026 withdrawing an earlier claim that every result could be reproduced by a reader: the cohort behind the Edge Score has not been published. The score is a percentile against that April 2026 cohort, not a probability that a trader is skilled, and the site says so.
- The prices climb steeply. Free covers a check and one watched wallet, and $9 a month covers three; the jump to $499 a month for Trader buys alerts polled every five minutes on 25 wallets, which is a slow feed next to the tools in this catalog that push fills within a second. The activity emails on the lower plans arrive at most once per wallet every 20 hours and say themselves that they can miss trades.
What TrueOdds does
Polymarket signal and research site sold as one $29-a-month subscription. A model puts a fair value and a target price on markets and sorts them into five lists: Moonshots (cheap outcomes far below the model's price), Bankers (near-certain outcomes ranked by yearly return), Snipers (model and profitable wallets on the same side), Smart Money and Swing (markets closing within 10 days). Around them sit a whale and insider feed, a screener of 10,000+ tracked traders with Telegram messages when a followed trader bets, a smart-money split on every market and a Telegram community chat. Pasting any Polymarket link into the analyzer is free without an account. You place every trade on Polymarket yourself.
Features- Fair value and target price for markets, from a model the site describes as an AI engine fed by public data such as NOAA and the Federal Reserve
- Five ranked signal lists: Moonshot, Banker, Sniper, Smart Money and Swing (10 days or less)
- Analyzer: paste any Polymarket link for the fair value, the gap to target, the smart-money split and a price chart
- Whale and insider radar of large trades from wallets tagged with win rate and P&L, on screen and in Telegram
- Screener of 10,000+ traders by win rate, P&L and streak, with a Telegram message when a followed trader bets
- The results page is a gallery of winners, not a track record. On Nov 13, 2026 it listed 413 signals with a return each, and not one was negative; each card shows the gain from the signal price to the target or the later high. The one we checked is real as far as it goes: TrueOdds flagged YES on Brazil's 2026 inflation landing between 4.50% and 4.99% on Oct 28 at 3¢ with a 16¢ target, and Polymarket's price history shows 3.1¢ that day and 21–24¢ on Nov 13. What the page does not show is how many Moonshots stayed at 3¢ and expired worthless, and the site's own table says about one Moonshot in three hits. The “+80% last month ROI” and “74% win rate” on the landing page come with no method or list behind them.
- The lists themselves are clearly explained, and the strategy behind each is ordinary. Bankers are the familiar buy-near-a-dollar trade sorted by yearly return; Snipers and Smart Money lean on the same profitable-wallet signal that the free whale trackers in this catalog sell; Moonshots are long shots where the model's price is several times the market's. The fair-value model is presented as a black box: the about page speaks of data from NASA, NOAA and the Federal Reserve and a “two-layered attack on the market”, and gives no calibration figures. The playbook still says Polymarket charges 0% on most markets, although taker fees now apply to several market types, crypto among them.
- Social proof is thin and inconsistent. The landing page says 1,500+ users and 4.8 stars with no source for the rating; the dashboard banner says the community chat has 1,000+ traders. TrueOdds is not in Polymarket's builder leaderboard, which is expected for a site that does not route trades. The partner page pays 50% of each subscription for life, which explains much of what is written about it elsewhere.
More head-to-heads
Every fact on this page is taken from the two listings as their authors publish them; POLBOTS verifies neither performance nor claims and has no stake in either tool. Nothing here is financial advice.