flawfence
Polymarket trader · Politics · since April 2026
flawfence has made $435K on Polymarket since April 2026, almost all of it in politics markets.
It is trading now — about 91.4 fills a day, mostly with limit orders, with 686 markets traded so far.
Over the last 11 days it made +19.5% on the money it put in; a copier one to two minutes behind, paying the spread and the taker fee, would have made +15.0%.
Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.
Should you copy flawfence?
Worth copying: a copier one to two minutes behind kept 80% of its 30-day return.
- Still tradingLast fill Oct 11, 2026
- Not a market maker96% of fills rest on the book
- Human speed91.4 fills a day
- Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 5% of its markets
- Not one lucky marketBest market is 30% of all-time profit
- Enough markets686 markets traded
- Winning lately+$17K over 90 days
- Winning overall+$435K all-time
- Survives the copy delayA copier 1–2 min behind: +15.0% over 11 days
Limit orders. 96% of its fills rest on the book. It gets its own price; a copier chasing with market orders pays the spread.
Holds both sides. Holds both outcomes in 3 open markets — hedges a copy can't mirror.
Copy check: what a follower would have made
Its last 1,000 fills over 11 days, replayed twice: at the prices flawfence got, and at the price a copier would get a little later — the market's midpoint plus half a typical spread, plus the taker fee. Same sizes, same exits; open positions valued at today's price (35% of the money went into markets that have already resolved).
| Who | Return | PnL | Paid extra |
|---|---|---|---|
| flawfence | +19.5% | +$86K | — |
| Copier, under a minute behind | +14.8% | +$68K | +1.6¢ / share |
| Copier, 1–2 minutes behind | +15.0% | +$69K | +1.6¢ / share |
| Copier, 5–6 minutes behind | +14.2% | +$66K | +1.9¢ / share |
Copier PnL is at flawfence's size, so compare the returns, not the dollars. Not modelled — all in the copier's favour: its own price impact, partial fills, and fills it would have missed.
How flawfence trades
- Fills a day
- 91.4
- Resting (maker) fills
- 96%
- Median buy price
- 37¢
- Median fill
- $21
- Fills that sell
- 22%
- Open positions
- 93
- Best market's share
- 30%
- Worst drawdown
- $265K
- Weeks in profit
- 71%
Fill statistics cover the last 90 days (its latest 1,000 fills); maker share, its latest 500 fills.
Where the profit comes from
- Politics+$493K
- Crypto+$8.7K
- Weather−$2.5K
- Economics−$6.6K
- Sports−$58K
Biggest wins
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No+$129K
- England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceArgentina+$99K
- Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceNorway+$70K
- Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-08?Yes+$64K
- Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceSwitzerland+$61K
Biggest losses
Largest open positions
| Market | Bought at | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | 37¢ | 86¢ | $102K | +$59K |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | 68¢ | 67¢ | $78K | −$1.3K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No | 82¢ | 89¢ | $59K | +$4.3K |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $52K | −$251 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No | 42¢ | 50¢ | $39K | +$6.6K |
Latest fills
- BuyWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No$6 at 65¢ · Oct 11, 2026
- BuyWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No$18 at 65¢ · Oct 11, 2026
- BuyBrowns vs. JetsJets$99 at 56¢ · Oct 11, 2026
- BuyBrowns vs. JetsJets$1 at 56¢ · Oct 11, 2026
- BuyBrowns vs. JetsJets$12 at 56¢ · Oct 11, 2026
- BuyBrowns vs. JetsJets$1 at 56¢ · Oct 11, 2026
Copy flawfence with
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flawfence: questions people ask
- How much has flawfence made on Polymarket?
- flawfence has made $435K on Polymarket since April 2026, almost all of it in politics markets: +$435K all-time on $28.7M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$181K.
- Is flawfence worth copying?
- Worth copying: a copier one to two minutes behind kept 80% of its 30-day return. We replayed its last 11 days of fills at the price a copier would get one to two minutes later, with the spread and the taker fee: +15.0% on money spent, against the wallet's own +19.5%. Past results don't predict future ones.
- What does flawfence trade?
- Mostly politics markets — 98% of its profit. It has traded 686 markets; its median buy is at 37¢ and its median fill is $21.
- How do I copy flawfence's trades?
- Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.
Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Oct 11, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.