paddaa
Polymarket trader · Politics · since July 2025
paddaa has made $273K on Polymarket since July 2025, almost all of it in politics markets.
It is trading now — about 53.8 fills a day, mostly taking the best available price, with 1,810 markets traded so far.
Over the last 19 days it made +5.7% on the money it put in; a copier one to two minutes behind, paying the spread and the taker fee, would have made +0.4%.
Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.
Should you copy paddaa?
Worth copying: a copier one to two minutes behind kept 8% of its 30-day return.
- Still tradingLast fill Oct 20, 2026
- Not a market maker45% of fills rest on the book
- Human speed53.8 fills a day
- Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 27% of its markets
- Not one lucky marketBest market is 8% of all-time profit
- Enough markets1,810 markets traded
- Winning lately+$84K over 90 days
- Winning overall+$273K all-time
- Survives the copy delayA copier 1–2 min behind: +0.4% over 19 days
Copy check: what a follower would have made
Its last 1,000 fills over 19 days, replayed twice: at the prices paddaa got, and at the price a copier would get a little later — the market's midpoint plus half a typical spread, plus the taker fee. Same sizes, same exits; open positions valued at today's price (20% of the money went into markets that have already resolved).
| Who | Return | PnL | Paid extra |
|---|---|---|---|
| paddaa | +5.7% | +$23K | — |
| Copier, under a minute behind | +2.9% | +$12K | +1.1¢ / share |
| Copier, 1–2 minutes behind | +0.4% | +$1.8K | +2.3¢ / share |
| Copier, 5–6 minutes behind | −0.2% | −$866 | +2.7¢ / share |
Copier PnL is at paddaa's size, so compare the returns, not the dollars. Not modelled — all in the copier's favour: its own price impact, partial fills, and fills it would have missed.
How paddaa trades
- Fills a day
- 53.8
- Resting (maker) fills
- 45%
- Median buy price
- 67¢
- Median fill
- $137
- Fills that sell
- 47%
- Open positions
- 232
- Best market's share
- 8%
- Worst drawdown
- $33K
- Weeks in profit
- 77%
Fill statistics cover the last 90 days (its latest 1,000 fills); maker share, its latest 500 fills.
Where the profit comes from
- Politics+$248K
- Culture+$12K
- Economics+$6.4K
- Tech+$2.6K
- Sports+$2.0K
- Weather+$667
- Finance+$663
- Mentions+$523
- Crypto−$303
Biggest wins
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes+$21K
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes+$16K
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?No+$12K
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes+$12K
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No+$12K
Largest open positions
| Market | Bought at | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?No | 68¢ | 63¢ | $11K | −$934 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No | 57¢ | 55¢ | $9.2K | −$440 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?No | 62¢ | 74¢ | $7.8K | +$1.3K |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?No | 43¢ | 56¢ | $6.5K | +$1.5K |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | 69¢ | 74¢ | $6.4K | +$378 |
Latest fills
- SellIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Yes$167 at 26¢ · Oct 20, 2026
- SellIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes$482 at 32¢ · Oct 20, 2026
- SellAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?No$549 at 89¢ · Oct 20, 2026
- BuyIran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?No$240 at 65¢ · Oct 20, 2026
- BuyUS announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?No$770 at 38¢ · Oct 20, 2026
- SellWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Yes$32 at 11¢ · Oct 20, 2026
Copy paddaa with
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paddaa: questions people ask
- How much has paddaa made on Polymarket?
- paddaa has made $273K on Polymarket since July 2025, almost all of it in politics markets: +$273K all-time on $17.6M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$316K.
- Is paddaa worth copying?
- Worth copying: a copier one to two minutes behind kept 8% of its 30-day return. We replayed its last 19 days of fills at the price a copier would get one to two minutes later, with the spread and the taker fee: +0.4% on money spent, against the wallet's own +5.7%. Past results don't predict future ones.
- What does paddaa trade?
- Mostly politics markets — 91% of its profit. It has traded 1,810 markets; its median buy is at 67¢ and its median fill is $137.
- How do I copy paddaa's trades?
- Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.
Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Oct 20, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.