Renan2030
Polymarket trader · Politics · since February 2026
Renan2030 has made $699K on Polymarket since February 2026, almost all of it in politics markets.
It is trading now — about 21.4 fills a day, mostly taking the best available price, with 468 markets traded so far.
Over the last 29 days it made +11.4% on the money it put in; a copier one to two minutes behind, paying the spread and the taker fee, would have made +10.7%.
Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.
Should you copy Renan2030?
Worth copying: a copier one to two minutes behind kept 95% of its 30-day return.
- Still tradingLast fill Oct 11, 2026
- Not a market maker5% of fills rest on the book
- Human speed21.4 fills a day
- Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 12% of its markets
- Not one lucky marketBest market is 36% of all-time profit
- Enough markets468 markets traded
- Winning lately+$251K over 90 days
- Winning overall+$699K all-time
- Survives the copy delayA copier 1–2 min behind: +10.7% over 29 days
Copy check: what a follower would have made
Its last 767 fills over 29 days, replayed twice: at the prices Renan2030 got, and at the price a copier would get a little later — the market's midpoint plus half a typical spread, plus the taker fee. Same sizes, same exits; open positions valued at today's price (20% of the money went into markets that have already resolved).
| Who | Return | PnL | Paid extra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renan2030 | +11.4% | +$142K | — |
| Copier, under a minute behind | +11.1% | +$139K | +0.1¢ / share |
| Copier, 1–2 minutes behind | +10.7% | +$135K | +0.4¢ / share |
| Copier, 5–6 minutes behind | +10.6% | +$133K | +0.5¢ / share |
Copier PnL is at Renan2030's size, so compare the returns, not the dollars. Not modelled — all in the copier's favour: its own price impact, partial fills, and fills it would have missed.
How Renan2030 trades
- Fills a day
- 21.4
- Resting (maker) fills
- 5%
- Median buy price
- 80¢
- Median fill
- $659
- Fills that sell
- 31%
- Open positions
- 18
- Best market's share
- 36%
- Worst drawdown
- $267K
- Weeks in profit
- 65%
Fill statistics cover the last 90 days (its latest 1,000 fills); maker share, its latest 500 fills.
Where the profit comes from
- Politics+$748K
- Culture+$2.6K
- Mentions+$4
- Economics−$8
- Finance−$28K
- Sports−$29K
Biggest wins
Biggest losses
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?No−$50K
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No−$18K
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Yes−$10K
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes−$10.0K
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers−$9.4K
Largest open positions
| Market | Bought at | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | 63¢ | 86¢ | $475K | +$127K |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | 78¢ | 88¢ | $335K | +$35K |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No | 83¢ | 85¢ | $129K | +$3.0K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes | 84¢ | 86¢ | $70K | +$1.2K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes | 95¢ | 96¢ | $35K | +$235 |
Latest fills
- BuyIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes$136 at 96¢ · Oct 11, 2026
- SellAlexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Yes$123 at 17¢ · Oct 11, 2026
- BuyIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes$32 at 95¢ · Oct 10, 2026
- BuyIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes$2.1K at 86¢ · Oct 10, 2026
- BuyIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes$2.1K at 95¢ · Oct 10, 2026
- SellBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No$4.2K at 84¢ · Oct 10, 2026
Copy Renan2030 with
All copy-trading botsAny tool that follows a wallet address can mirror this one — paste 0x88c4…129a and cap the size of every trade.
PolyBot
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Ratio
Social prediction-market app for iOS and Android built around copying Polymarket traders. Browse markets, follow forecasters from a global leaderboard, mirror their positions with your own sizing, and read the reasoning they post next to each trade. Wallet tracking, alerts and portfolio analytics sit alongside the feed. The wallet is self-custodial — you hold the keys and can export them — and every trade settles on Polymarket itself, not on Ratio's infrastructure.
Renan2030: questions people ask
- How much has Renan2030 made on Polymarket?
- Renan2030 has made $699K on Polymarket since February 2026, almost all of it in politics markets: +$699K all-time on $15.6M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$205K.
- Is Renan2030 worth copying?
- Worth copying: a copier one to two minutes behind kept 95% of its 30-day return. We replayed its last 29 days of fills at the price a copier would get one to two minutes later, with the spread and the taker fee: +10.7% on money spent, against the wallet's own +11.4%. Past results don't predict future ones.
- What does Renan2030 trade?
- Mostly politics markets — 100% of its profit. It has traded 468 markets; its median buy is at 80¢ and its median fill is $659.
- How do I copy Renan2030's trades?
- Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.
Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Oct 11, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.