rdba
Polymarket trader · Politics · since June 2025
rdba has made $465K on Polymarket since June 2025, most of it in politics markets.
It is trading now — about 6.5 fills a day, mostly with limit orders, with 264 markets traded so far.
100% of its fills rest on the book, and it buys both outcomes in 50% of its markets. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead.
rdba's PnL by month
| Month | PnL in month | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | +$14K | +$462K |
| Oct 2026 | −$56K | +$447K |
| Sep 2026 | +$85 | +$504K |
| Aug 2026 | +$31K | +$504K |
| Jul 2026 | −$2.5K | +$472K |
| Jun 2026 | +$233K | +$475K |
| May 2026 | −$83K | +$242K |
| Apr 2026 | +$143K | +$325K |
| Mar 2026 | +$115K | +$182K |
| Feb 2026 | +$6.2K | +$68K |
| Jan 2026 | +$33K | +$62K |
| Dec 2025 | +$87K | +$29K |
| Nov 2025 | +$84K | −$58K |
| Oct 2025 | +$35K | −$142K |
| Sep 2025 | −$1.4K | −$177K |
| Aug 2025 | +$25K | −$175K |
| Jul 2025 | −$200K | −$200K |
| Jun 2025 | −$405 | −$582 |
Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.
Should you copy rdba?
Not copyable: market maker.
- Still tradingLast fill Nov 4, 2026
- Not a market maker100% of fills rest on the book
- Human speed6.5 fills a day
- Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 50% of its markets
- Not one lucky marketBest market is 161% of all-time profit
- Enough markets264 markets traded
- Winning lately−$37K over 90 days
- Winning overall+$465K all-time
Market maker. 100% of its fills rest on the book, and it buys both outcomes in 50% of its markets. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead.
One big win. 161% of its all-time profit came from a single market — “Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?”. That is one call that paid, not a record to follow.
Not winning lately. −$37K over the last 90 days. Whatever worked before isn't working now.
Deep drawdowns. At its worst it gave back $741K, 62% of its peak profit.
Buys near-certainties. Median buy at 100¢: many small wins, and one miss costs a lot of them.
Copy check: what a follower would have made
We only replay wallets that pass the structural checks above — this one fails on “market maker”, so a copy would be off before the first fill. See the wallets that pass.
How rdba trades
- Fills a day
- 6.5
- Resting (maker) fills
- 100%
- Median buy price
- 100¢
- Median fill
- $95
- Fills that sell
- 87%
- Open positions
- 20
- Best market's share
- 161%
- Worst drawdown
- $741K
- Weeks in profit
- 52%
Fill statistics cover the last 90 days; maker share, its latest 500 fills.
Where the profit comes from
- Politics82% of gains+$565K
- Culture12% of gains+$82K
- Mentions3% of gains+$17K
- Finance2% of gains+$11K
- Tech1% of gains+$8.9K
- Economics1% of gains+$7.2K
- Crypto16% of losses−$35K
- Sports84% of losses−$187K
Biggest wins
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes+$749K
- Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Yes+$358K
- Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes+$280K
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes+$197K
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No+$134K
Biggest losses
Largest open positions
| Market | Bought at | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | 95¢ | 99¢ | $7.0K | +$294 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $5.7K | −$72 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | 94¢ | 82¢ | $4.9K | −$701 |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | 53¢ | 68¢ | $4.2K | +$918 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | 96¢ | 73¢ | $3.7K | −$1.1K |
Latest fills
- SellWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$8.0K at 84¢ · Nov 4, 2026
- SellWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$2 at 84¢ · Nov 4, 2026
- SellWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$20 at 84¢ · Nov 4, 2026
- SellWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$4 at 84¢ · Nov 4, 2026
- SellWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$21K at 84¢ · Nov 4, 2026
- SellWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No$24 at 84¢ · Nov 4, 2026
Copy-trading tools
All copy-trading botsrdba fails our checks, but these tools can follow any wallet — start from one that passes.
PolyWin
Verified PartnerTelegram bot that puts the whole Polymarket workflow in one chat: copy trading, two snipers, backtests and AI trader discovery.
Infinity
Verified PartnerA full trading terminal inside Telegram, covering two venues at once: Polymarket prediction markets on the live CLOB order book, and Hyperliquid perps and spot — plus copy-trading on top.
PolyCop
Telegram copy-trading bot with a public smart-money radar behind it. In the bot, Copy Trade mirrors any target wallet's buys and sells under your sizing, price and amount filters, with a sub-wallet per target if you…
rdba: questions people ask
- How much has rdba made on Polymarket?
- rdba has made $465K on Polymarket since June 2025, most of it in politics markets: +$465K all-time on $49.3M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$808K.
- How has rdba's profit changed over time?
- rdba's cumulative PnL went from −$177 on Jun 19, 2025 to +$462K on Nov 12, 2026. It peaked at +$509K on Oct 1, 2026; the deepest drawdown was −$208K, from Jun 19, 2025 to Jul 24, 2025. Best month: Jun 2026 (+$233K); worst: Jul 2025 (−$200K). Up in 12 of 18 months. Figures are from Polymarket's profile chart, before taker fees.
- Is rdba worth copying?
- Not copyable: market maker. 100% of its fills rest on the book, and it buys both outcomes in 50% of its markets. It earns the spread and the maker rebates; a copier who takes liquidity pays that spread instead. Past results don't predict future ones.
- What does rdba trade?
- Mostly politics markets — 82% of its profit. It has traded 264 markets; its median buy is at 100¢ and its median fill is $95.
- How do I copy rdba's trades?
- Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.
Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Nov 12, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.