surf
Polymarket trader · Politics · since October 2024
surf has made $124K on Polymarket since October 2024, most of it in politics markets.
It is trading now — about 5.4 fills a day, mostly with limit orders, with 804 markets traded so far.
213% of its all-time profit came from a single market — “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?”. That is one call that paid, not a record to follow.
surf's PnL by month
| Month | PnL in month | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | +$164K | +$198K |
| Oct 2026 | −$1.3K | +$34K |
| Sep 2026 | +$441 | +$35K |
| Aug 2026 | −$4.6K | +$35K |
| Jul 2026 | −$61K | +$40K |
| Jun 2026 | −$179K | +$100K |
| May 2026 | +$318K | +$279K |
| Apr 2026 | +$75K | −$39K |
| Mar 2026 | +$41K | −$114K |
| Feb 2026 | −$65K | −$155K |
| Jan 2026 | −$72K | −$90K |
| Dec 2025 | +$1.6K | −$18K |
| Nov 2025 | +$48K | −$20K |
| Oct 2025 | +$100K | −$68K |
| Sep 2025 | −$45K | −$168K |
| Aug 2025 | −$2.7K | −$123K |
| Jul 2025 | +$81K | −$120K |
| Jun 2025 | +$38K | −$202K |
| May 2025 | −$165K | −$240K |
| Apr 2025 | +$12K | −$75K |
| Mar 2025 | −$23K | −$86K |
| Feb 2025 | −$48K | −$63K |
| Jan 2025 | +$160K | −$15K |
| Dec 2024 | +$41K | −$175K |
| Nov 2024 | −$223K | −$216K |
| Oct 2024 | +$7.3K | +$7.2K |
Weekly points from Polymarket's profile chart, which counts before taker fees; the headline figure is the leaderboard's, after fees.
Should you copy surf?
Not copyable: one big win.
- Still tradingLast fill Nov 12, 2026
- Not a market maker85% of fills rest on the book
- Human speed5.4 fills a day
- Takes one sideBuys both outcomes in 15% of its markets
- Not one lucky marketBest market is 213% of all-time profit
- Enough markets804 markets traded
- Winning lately+$163K over 90 days
- Winning overall+$124K all-time
One big win. 213% of its all-time profit came from a single market — “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?”. That is one call that paid, not a record to follow.
Limit orders. 85% of its fills rest on the book. It gets its own price; a copier chasing with market orders pays the spread.
Deep drawdowns. At its worst it gave back $580K, 94% of its peak profit.
Copy check: what a follower would have made
We only replay wallets that pass the structural checks above — this one fails on “one big win”, so a copy would be off before the first fill. See the wallets that pass.
How surf trades
- Fills a day
- 5.4
- Resting (maker) fills
- 85%
- Median buy price
- 39¢
- Median fill
- $30
- Fills that sell
- 0%
- Open positions
- 9
- Best market's share
- 213%
- Worst drawdown
- $580K
- Weeks in profit
- 52%
Fill statistics cover the last 90 days; maker share, its latest 500 fills.
Where the profit comes from
- Politics62% of gains+$200K
- Culture16% of gains+$53K
- Sports15% of gains+$49K
- Tech3% of gains+$8.7K
- Mentions2% of gains+$6.8K
- Crypto2% of gains+$5.5K
- Weather<1% of gains+$34
- Finance17% of losses−$33K
- Economics83% of losses−$168K
Biggest wins
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Yes+$264K
- Bills vs. TexansTexans+$147K
- Rams vs. SeahawksSeahawks+$119K
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes+$102K
- Giants vs. BroncosBroncos+$101K
Biggest losses
Largest open positions
| Market | Bought at | Now | Value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | 51¢ | 80¢ | $220K | +$79K |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No | 92¢ | 99¢ | $5.3K | +$369 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | 25¢ | 14¢ | $907 | −$736 |
| Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?No | 85¢ | 98¢ | $158 | +$21 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes | 37¢ | 1.5¢ | $37 | −$887 |
Latest fills
- BuyJensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No$1.6K at 16¢ · Nov 12, 2026
- BuyJensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No$9 at 85¢ · Nov 10, 2026
- BuyJensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No$270 at 85¢ · Nov 10, 2026
- BuyJensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No$269 at 85¢ · Nov 10, 2026
- BuyJensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No$3 at 85¢ · Nov 10, 2026
- BuyJensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No$3 at 85¢ · Nov 10, 2026
Copy-trading tools
All copy-trading botssurf fails our checks, but these tools can follow any wallet — start from one that passes.
Ratio
Social prediction-market app for iOS and Android built around copying Polymarket traders. Browse markets, follow forecasters from a global leaderboard, mirror their positions with your own sizing, and read the reasoning…
Polycool
Mobile-first Polymarket app for copy trading and market discovery. A Smart Feed shows what winning traders are buying right now, an Insider Feed flags suspicious high-conviction bets, and you can copy up to 4 traders…
Predictify
Full-featured Polymarket bot for Telegram. Browse markets, set price alerts on market moves and copy-trade proven wallets — all from inside your Telegram chat.
surf: questions people ask
- How much has surf made on Polymarket?
- surf has made $124K on Polymarket since October 2024, most of it in politics markets: +$124K all-time on $29.0M of volume, by Polymarket's leaderboard (after fees, before rebates). Over the last 30 days: +$338K.
- How has surf's profit changed over time?
- surf's cumulative PnL went from −$82 on Oct 29, 2024 to +$198K on Nov 12, 2026. It peaked at +$279K on May 28, 2026; the deepest drawdown was −$300K, from Nov 13, 2025 to Feb 26, 2026. Best month: May 2026 (+$318K); worst: Nov 2024 (−$223K). Up in 14 of 26 months. Figures are from Polymarket's profile chart, before taker fees.
- Is surf worth copying?
- Not copyable: one big win. 213% of its all-time profit came from a single market — “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?”. That is one call that paid, not a record to follow. Past results don't predict future ones.
- What does surf trade?
- Mostly politics markets — 62% of its profit. It has traded 804 markets; its median buy is at 39¢ and its median fill is $30.
- How do I copy surf's trades?
- Any Polymarket copy-trading tool that follows a wallet address can mirror it — the address is 0xfd2b117412a698f322b0cd18d6827dad262b8e50. Set a per-trade cap and a slippage limit before you start: a copy always fills later, and usually worse, than the original.
Public on-chain data from Polymarket's Data API, checked Nov 12, 2026. POLBOTS is not affiliated with this trader or with Polymarket. Nothing here is financial advice; past results don't predict future ones.