Predict & Profit
Automated Python trading system for Kalshi weather and inflation markets that hunts mispriced binary contracts. The weather bot polls a 164-member forecast ensemble (GFS, AIGEFS, ECMWF IFS, AIFS-ENS) across 15 US cities and only trades when 3 of 4 model families agree; the included inflation bot trades CPI/PCE contracts when its 5-source nowcast stack diverges from the Cleveland Fed by 0.15pp+. Kelly sizing, daily loss limits, public track record — full source code, no subscriptions.
Overview
Automated Python trading system for Kalshi weather and inflation markets that hunts mispriced binary contracts. The weather bot polls a 164-member forecast ensemble (GFS, AIGEFS, ECMWF IFS, AIFS-ENS) across 15 US cities and only trades when 3 of 4 model families agree; the included inflation bot trades CPI/PCE contracts when its 5-source nowcast stack diverges from the Cleveland Fed by 0.15pp+. Kelly sizing, daily loss limits, public track record — full source code, no subscriptions.
How it works
- Prices every temperature contract against 164 independent forecasts.
- Enters only when the model probability clears the market price with edge.
- Trades inflation when the homemade nowcast diverges from the Cleveland Fed.
- Caps risk per city, per series and per day — no-trade is the default.
Supported markets
- Kalshi weather · 15 US cities
- CPI / Core PCE
Name-a-fair-price from ~$75 (€65.54) on Gumroad — one-time, both bots plus dashboard with full Python source. No subscription, no paid APIs.
Get Predict & Profit- 164-member weather ensemble across 4 model families
- Trades only when 3 of 4 ensembles agree on direction
- Inflation bot with 5 independent nowcast signals
- Kelly criterion sizing, early exits, daily loss limits
- Streamlit dashboard and public trade log (73+ settled trades)
- Author
- Steve Farmer
- Category
- Weather Markets
- Risk level
- Medium risk
- Added
- Jul 16, 2026
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